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Financial Times


Their Ukraine


By Stefan Wagstyl and Roman Olearchyk 

Published: June 15 2007 03:00 

Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko seems to have recovered from the
lethargy that almost overwhelmed him after his triumph in the Orange
Revolution. Perhaps the after-effects of his poisoning in 2004 are wearing
off. Perhaps he has summoned new reserves of energy. Perhaps he has been
inspired by the country's turmoil.

Whatever the reason, Mr Yushchenko is back in action. The immediate result
has been a sharpening of his conflict with his Orange Revolution rival,
Viktor Yanukovich, the prime minister. Last month, in Ukraine's most serious
political incident since the 2004 uprising, doors and windows were smashed
when Mr Yanukovich's supporters, backed by riot police, stormeda government
building occupied by pro-Yushchenko officials.

Both sides drew back from the brink and provisionally agreed to hold early
parliamentary elections in September, which the president hopes will clear
the air. As he told the FT in a recent interview: "It's very important to
understand that the political forces that then will come to the new
parliament . . . even if the [same parties] come back again . . . will be
different. I think they will attach more importance to political dialogue
from now on."

But there is considerable doubt in Kiev whether a reinvigorated president or
early elections can quickly resolve the country's political problems, which
are rooted in Ukraine's regional divides, its difficult post-communist
transformation and its proximity to its huge neighbour, the resurgent
Russia.

The current crisis dates back to 2005, when the pro-western Mr Yushchenko
failed to take full advantage of his Orange Revolution triumph or prevent
destructive rows between his supporters and those of his then ally, Yulia
Tymoshenko.

Under the compromise outcome to the Orange Revolution, the president was
obliged to transfer power to parliament in early 2006 and hold parliamentary
polls. To Mr Yushchenko's shock, Mr Yanukovich bounced back to power at the
head of his Regions party and became prime minister.

Their co-habitation has been an unruly failure. At first, Mr Yushchenko gave
ground, hoping to secure an accommodation with Mr Yanukovich. But -
chargesMr Yushchenko - the Regions party concentrated on expanding its
parliamentary power principally by bribing other MPs to change sides. In
April, the president dissolved parliament and called early elections.
Accused of acting illegally, he has struggled to enforce his decision:
although Mr Yanukovich reluctantly agreed to the new elections, there is
resistance from his parliamentary allies and it is still not clear whether
the vote will take place, as planned, on September 30.

It is even less clear what will happen afterwards. Three big groupings will,
as now, dominate parliament - Mr Yushchenko's Our Ukraine, Mr Yanukovich's
Regions and Ms Tymoshenko's bloc.Mr Yushchenko and Mr Yanukovich broadly
agree on business-oriented economic policies, in contrast to Ms Tymoshenko,
who has campaigned on a platform of curbing oligarchs - despite questions
about her own wealth. On promoting democracy, Mr Yushchenko and Ms
Tymoshenko stand much closer. Mr Yanukovich, despite recent attempts at a
makeover, still behaves like a Soviet-era party boss.

Many analysts expect the post-election negotiations to last for weeks if not
months, raising questions about the government's capacity to make decisions
over this time. However, the risk of violence, which seemed a real
possibility during the events of last month, is now discounted, given the
lack of public interest in what is largely seen as a struggle within a
faction-ridden political elite.

The outcome of any coalition talks will depend as much on the distribution
of power and influence as on political principles. Corruption will not go
away. Business people favour a Yushchenko-Yanukovich coalition or a
Yushchenko-Yanukovich-Tymoshenko grand alliance. But whether these rivals
can co-operate more successfully than in the past is a moot point. So is the
question of how they will tackle Ukraine's fundamental political challenges.

The country is halfway along the road from Soviet totalitarianism to full
democracy. It remains divided between a pro-Yushchenko western region that
fears Russia and wants rapid integration with the European Union and Mr
Yanukovich's base in the industrial east, which if not pro-Russian treats
the former imperial power with more deference. Politics is dominated by
business groups ready to bribe officials and parliamentary deputies alike.
Such groups are increasingly interested in the access to global markets that
comes through EU integration and support recent moves to join the World
Trade Organisation. But, for some Ukrainian industrialists, Russia's booming
markets remain a priority.

The Orange Revolution supporters' hopes that the events of 2004 would mark a
break with the past have been dashed. The public is thoroughly disenchanted
with politics. Fortunately, a strong economy is generating jobs and boosting
incomes, allowing Ukrainians to focus on economic rather than political
priorities.

Yet the gains of the Orange Revolution have not been lost. There is a free
press and there is real - if often corrupt and brutal - competition for
power. Unlike in Russia, where the Kremlin is tightening its authoritarian
controls, there is a democracy in the making in Ukraine. What it lacks are
democratic institutions, notably effective courts. As Vadym Karasiov, a
liberal political commentator, says: "Ukraine is going in the right
direction but taking the wrong steps. Russia is going in the wrong direction
but taking the right steps."

Ukraine might go faster "in the right direction" if it were not for its
geopolitical position. Even in the 1990s, when Russia was weak, it was hard
for Kiev to break free of Moscow's orbit. Today, with Russia increasingly
willing to reassert itself in the former Soviet Union, it remains difficult
despite most Ukrainians' preference for joining the EU (even though that is
a remote possibility).

The Kremlin mishandled the 2004 presidential polls when it failed to secure
the election of Mr Yanukovich and block the rise of Mr Yushchenko. But it
continues to play politics, supporting pro-Russian parties and
non-government organisations, notably in Crimea, where ethnic Russians
predominate and where the Russian Black Sea fleet is based in the Ukrainian
port of Sevastopol.

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, the acting head of Ukraine's security services,
warns of the dangers of Russian interference, saying: "We are a young
country. For any country it is dangerous when domestic politics is being
interfered with by foreign sources."

Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that he wants good relations with
Kiev but he rarely misses an opportunity to fire off an insult, recently
calling Ukraine "a tyranny". The Kremlin's aim is to portray the Orange
Revolution as a chaotic failure - and reduce the appeal of western-style
democracy in Russia and elsewhere in the former Soviet Union. For their
part, Russian companies see investing in Ukraine as good business - both in
non-political sectors such as retail and in the intensely politicised energy
industry, where Russia's dominance as a supplier can generate political as
well as commercial dividends.

The EU remains ambivalent about Ukraine. Poland and some east European
member states are pressing Brussels to engage more with Kiev and perhaps
offer eventual future membership. But so strong is enlargement fatigue in
the Union that this is off the agenda.

Mr Yushchenko, who hoped for more just after the Orange Revolution, now
accepts that the way forward is through developing economic links and
securing EU aid. He knows the free trade agreement that Kiev can negotiate
once WTO accession is in place will drive Ukraine to implement about half
the acquis - the EU's membership rules.

It was hard enough for Kiev to balance east and west when there was less
tension in relations between Russia and the US and EU. Now, it is more
difficult. As Oleh Rybachuk, Mr Yushchenko's adviser, says: "Unfortunately
for Ukraine, every time there is a conflict between the west and Russia we
suffer."

Chicago Tribune

AROUND THE WORLD
News
President urges parliament to quit 
14 June 2007
KIEV, UKRAINE

President Viktor Yushchenko urged parliament Wednesday to stop meeting and
officially dissolve itself so that early elections can be held in September.


Yushchenko and his main political rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych,
agreed on the date of the vote last month in a bid to defuse a political
crisis that had threatened to escalate into clashes between troops loyal to
both leaders. 

More than 150 lawmakers who support Yushchenko have since resigned,
according to their parties, which means the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada can no
longer legally operate. But parliament speaker Oleksandr Moroz has refused
to formally dissolve it, citing technical reasons, and legislators loyal to
Yanukovych have been attending parliament sessions, keeping Ukraine in
political limbo. 

The New York Times
Finally, on a Sunny Hill in Ukraine, Respect for Victims of the Nazis 
15 June 2007
page 14
 
Yesterday in Gvozdavka, Ukraine, Rabbi Shlomo Baksht removed a small cache
of human bones from a cardboard box and placed them in a shallow grave, a
hole once dug as a trench by villagers trying to thwart the advance of Nazi
tanks in the early 1940s. 

Thus, he said, after six decades, these Jewish victims of Nazi brutality won
respect, with the recitation of Kaddish, the prayer for the dead. 

The bones were dug up a year ago when a utility extended gas pipes into the
village, not far from Odessa, a traditional center of Jewish culture.
Research into wartime archives in Moscow found that the Nazis and their
Romanian allies had set up a concentration camp near this hillside, and that
4,772 inmates had died there. Even yesterday, the rabbis searched the fields
again, gathering more bones for burial. 

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