[Ohio UZO News] FT (2); BS; OSCE

[Deychak, Orest]

Financial Times

Ukraine’s chance

www.ft.com/home/europe

 

 

Published: September 24 2007, 19:49 

Ukrainian voters are understandably less than thrilled by the choice offered in next Sunday’s parliamentary elections.

In the three years since the 2004 Orange revolution, they have seen their leaders quarrel, swap corruption charges and generally fail to establish a stable government. 

If the opinion polls are right, the election will not make a decisive change: President Viktor Yushchenko, prime minister Viktor Yanukovich and opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko will remain in charge of the three biggest political blocs, with none having a majority. The only answer will be more bickering and more bargaining. 

Moreover, the country’s business oligarchs wield more power than they did under the authoritarian former president Leonid Kuchma. Rinat Akhmetov, the richest, has an estimated fortune of $15bn-plus. That puts him behind Roman Abramovich, Russia’s wealthiest man, who has about $19bn. But Russia’s economy is five times larger than Ukraine’s. No businessman in the world has as much domestic economic clout as Mr Akhmetov. Even if he abjured politics, he would inevitably have big political influence. In fact, Mr Akhmetov is an MP and active backer of Mr Yanukovich’s Regions party. 

With so much power in one man’s hands, it will be hard for Ukraine to develop a healthy democracy. Little wonder, voters are disillusioned.

Yet, Ukraine’s political life is in far better shape than seemed possible before the Orange revolution. The elections will doubtless be hit by localised claims of ballot-rigging, but the days of nationwide fraud are gone; the media are largely free; and there is real political competition among the parties.

The economy is distorted by gross inequality but it is growing at its fastest-ever pace. Ordinary Ukrainians may still not have much, but they have more than at any time since independence.

Russia is backing pro-Russia politicians in the polls, but its efforts are, fortunately, a far cry from its central role in Mr Yanukovich’s scandal-hit 2004 campaign. Meanwhile, the west has dropped its wholesale enthusiasm for Mr Yushchenko for more measured support for politicians backing European Union-oriented policies. Ukrainians will vote on Sunday mostly free of direct foreign influence.

Voters must put pressure on party leaders to ensure the country pursues EU membership with as much determination as possible. The country’s leaders must implement accession-linked policies – and seek support from businessmen at a politically acceptable price.

 

Financial Times

Oligarchs loom over Ukraine polls
By Roman Olearchyk and Stefan Wagstyl 

September 20, 2007

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/af1caa32-67a3-11dc-8906-0000779fd2ac.html

At the recent convention of Ukraine’s Regions party, the man at the centre of attention was not Viktor Yanukovich, prime minister and party leader, but Rinat Akhmetov, the country’s richest man. Sitting in the front row, two seats from Mr Yanukovich, he attracted the biggest crowds of journalists, politicians and cameramen.

Meanwhile, Yulia Tymoshenko, the leader of the rival Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko, has been seen on the campaign trail riding in a helicopter with Kostyantin Zhevago, an iron ore billionaire. And even President Viktor Yushchenko, who has often decried the political influence of Ukraine’s oligarchs, has allowed himself to get close to leading businessmen, who have donated money to Yushchenko-backed charities.
With all parties campaigning hard for the September 30 parliamentary elections, politicians are taking all the support they can. And some – though not all – of the country’s business oligarchs are ready to lend a hand. 

But it is a delicate relationship. Mr Yushchenko has warned openly that the oligarchs are once again interfering in politics and gaining “the taste of power”. His remarks will strike a chord with those voters who believe businessmen have too big a say in politics. But his comments will be dismissed as electioneering by others, who claim the oligarchs’ influence is exaggerated. The oligarchs were formidable political players before the 2004 Orange Revolution, but they were generally obedient to ex-president Leonid Kuchma, currying favour to expand their businesses, often through privatisation deals.

When Mr Yushchenko came to power, supported by the firebrand Ms Tymo-shenko, some businessmen feared the new leaders would seek to reverse a decade of privatisation. But those concerns waned after Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko fell out in 2005 and the privatisation review ended with the cancellation of just one big deal – the Kryvorizhstal steel mill. The president then said he wanted to move on and work with business. That message was reinforced once Mr Yanukovich, the president’s arch-rival, returned to power as prime minister last year. 

With the economy booming, the oligarchs recovered their poise – and enjoyed unprecedented increases in profits and asset values. Meanwhile, the political reforms that followed the Orange Revolution devolved power from the president to parliament – giving MPs, many of them millionaire business people, greater access to power. With Mr Yushchenko and Mr Yanukovich at loggerheads, and both battling Ms Tymoshenko, the principal opposition leader, post-Orange Revolution politics has offered many openings for oligarchs. Mr Yushchenko called the elections early mainly because he was concerned about corruption in parliament. 

The business oligarchs have broadly accepted the president’s plans to balance Ukraine’s longstanding ties with Russia with closer ties to the European Union. And with Europe becoming Ukraine’s main trading partner in recent years, they have increasingly supported Kiev’s EU-oriented policy. “[They] understand the need to put their suits on before entering world markets and the need to clean up their act, push reforms in the country and in their companies,” says Kost Bondarenko, a political analyst.

Another analyst, Andriy Yermolaev, sees a divide between pro-Yanukovich businessmen, led by Mr Akhmetov, whose companies are based in east Ukrainian heavy industry, and those oligarchs supporting the president and Ms Tymo-shenko, who tend to have more diversified financial and trading interests, such as Igor Kolomoisky, head of the Privat banking-based group. The Yushchenko/Tymo-shenko supporters favour rapid economic reform and liberalisation. The pro-Yanukovich businessmen are more conservative. “The rivalry between these two groups is quite damaging and ruthless,” says Mr Yermolaev.

Mr Yushchenko is particularly worried about Mr Akhmetov, who stands out among oligarchs as the richest and most overt in his political involvement. An MP for the Regions party, the largest in parliament, he has long backed Mr Yanukovich and worked with him in managing rich, Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine. The party recently infuriated the president by pushing for a referendum calling for official status for the Russian language and challenging Mr Yushchenko’s hopes of closer ties to Nato.

Ms Tymoshenko claims Mr Akhmetov profits from his loyalty to Mr Yanukovich, citing his recent acquisition of a stake in a big state-controlled power generator, Dniproenergo. Mr Akhmetov has denied that he benefited from preferential treatment. Mr Kolomoisky and Mr Akhmetov did not respond to requests for comment about their political interests. Among several other business leaders, only Serhiy Taruta, co-owner of the leading steel producer ISD Group, agreed to answer questions about politics. The business elite was generally “seeking to be apolitical, as playing in politics can unearth serious risks” for long-term business relations and reputations, he said.

That may be true for Mr Taruta, but clearly not for some of his big rivals.

The oligarchs

* Rinat Akhmetov, aged 41. Controls assets in steel, coal, energy, banking, hotels, telecoms, television and soccer. Estimated worth: $15.6bn (£7.7bn, €11.1bn). Backed Viktor Yanukovich in the 2004 presidential elections. A dedicated member of the premier’s Regions party and, since March 2006, an MP, but has some discreet links with Viktor Yushchenko too. He backs the president’s EU membership bid but opposes his plans for speedy Nato accession. Backs making Russian official language.

* Viktor Pinchuk, aged 46. Controls assets in steel pipe production, railway wheels, media and banking. Estimated worth: $7bn. Son-in-law to former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma. Backed Mr Yanukovich in 2004 elections. Ex-MP, stepped down after the Orange Revolution. Some close associates from his past have recently joined Mr Yanukovich’s Regions party as parliamentary candidates. Supports EU membership aspirations. Has not been vocal on Mr Yushchenko’s Nato plans or the Russian language issue.

* Igor Kolomoisky, aged 44. Controls assets in banking, ore mining, steel, energy, ferro alloys, hydrocarbons and media. Estimated worth: $3.5bn. Main co-owner of Ukraine’s Privat business group with Gennady 

* Bogolyubov, aged 45. Privat holds assets outside Ukraine, including factories in Russia, Romania, Poland and the US. Neither has served in parliament or government but according to analysts, both have backed various political parties. Neither has publicly expressed personal views on the EU, Nato or Russian language. 

* Sergey Taruta, aged 52. Assets in steel, machine building, hotels, gas production. Estimated worth: $2.3bn. Co-owns Ukraine’s industrial ISD Group along with Vitali Gayduk, an ex-government official. Like Mr Akhmetov’s empire, this group started in the industrial Donbass. ISD has invested outside Ukraine, including in steel mills in Hungary, Poland and the US. The group appears to try avoid intervening in politics but is viewed as pro-Yushchenko, even though it has not publicly support an EU membership bid. 

* Kostyantin Zhevago, aged 32. Assets in ore mining, banking, truck manufacturing, hydrocarbons and real estate. Estimated worth: $2bn. Has served as legislator, switching between parties since the late 1990s. Currently member of Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc. Supports EU integration, but has not expressed views on Nato or language.

* Dmitry Firtash, aged 42. Assets in gas and electricity trading, chemicals, media and real estate. Estimated worth: $1.4bn. Not publicly active in politics since an unsuccessful bid for parliament in 2002. Viewed as a backer of various parties and political projects. Has strong relations in Moscow as a partner of Russia’s Gazprom in Swiss-registered gas trader RosUkrEnergo. Has not expressed his views on EU membership, Nato or the Russian language issue.

Source: Estimated wealth calculated by Kiev-based investment bank Dragon Capital and published by Ukraine’s Korrespondent magazine in a 2007 listing of the country’s wealthiest people


Baltimore Sun


Ukraine democracy needs U.S. help


www.baltimoresun.com <http://www.baltimoresun.com/> 


By Joseph Tydings

September 24, 2007

Next Sunday, with Ukraine's once-hopeful Orange Revolution in disarray, that wonderful but beleaguered country will hold a national parliament election that is shaping up to be another political storm - one where an ill wind blows through to steal the vote. 

The Bush administration, so focused on forcing change in Iraq, has turned its back on the survival of Ukraine's fragile new democracy. The United States must join Europe's leading democracies and closely watch the parliament, or Rada, election. If we don't, freedom-loving Ukrainians may be robbed again. 

I first met courageous refugees from Ukraine as a young soldier in Europe after World War II. I was struck by their indomitable spirit and appreciation of our democratic institutions. Ukrainian identity, which predates Russia, was never successfully suppressed under the Romanov czars or Stalin's dictatorship. In November 2004, while I was an election monitor in Ukraine, I witnessed a stolen election that was later reversed by thousands of young Ukrainians, gathered under orange flags in Kiev's Maidan Square. They wouldn't stand for election fraud. 

As large as Texas and with almost 50 million people, Ukraine was the cradle of Slavic civilization. It was starved by Stalin and devastated by Hitler. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was ruled by Communist successors with Soviet corruption, exploitation and incompetence. Nevertheless, Ukraine is the most educated and enlightened of the nations of the former Soviet Union, and is a beacon of hope for all. 

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukrainians have continued to aspire to a better life, and to vote in huge numbers. Today, with Kremlin-influenced oligarchs bankrolling two of the top three parties, Russia is trying to bring Ukraine back into its orbit. A stolen election would be just what the Russians ordered. 

Igor Popov thinks so. The head of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine, he believes Sunday's elections will be "dirtier" than those in 2006, when the world was watching. 

"In 2006, President Viktor Yushchenko was very interested in showing the world that we are capable of conducting honest elections," he wrote in a recent report. This time, he fears leading parties will again try to manipulate the elections. 

Today, our country, the world's leading democracy, has forgotten Ukraine and the need for effective election monitoring. In 2005, USAID funded a monitoring mission of more than 30 former U.S. and European legislators; I was among them. Since then, the organizing group, the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation, has been forced to completely close shop in Ukraine for lack of Bush administration support. 

In contrast, the European Parliament's largest political group recently urged member states to send observers to Ukraine. Joseph Daul, leader of the European People's Party and European Democrats, sees the elections as a test of the country's readiness to emerge from its recent political turmoil. In an interview earlier this month, he said that fair results are important for "strengthening Ukraine's democracy" and its "European future." 

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe will observe. A smattering of other international nonprofit groups, including a few Americans, are signed up too. But unless the number of registered international observers - just 400 so far - increases drastically, a tree could fall in an empty forest and no one will hear. 

What will happen next in Ukraine if another election is stolen? Perhaps Ukrainian poet-laureate Taras Shevchenko said it best in his poem, "My Friendly Epistle" in 1845: 

[I will] grieve like one accursed, Through all the hours both last and first, Sad at the crossroads, day and night, With no one there to see my plight. 

Across a century since his death, Shevchenko's beloved poems evoked heartfelt sympathy for oppressed people everywhere and evolved into an indictment of rulers who abuse their power. Today, it is imperative the United States heed his words and join the international community to watch the Rada elections closely. 

Joseph Tydings served as U.S. Senator from Maryland from 1965 to 1971. He was co-chairman of the Election Monitor Team in Ukraine's November and December 2005 elections. His e-mail is tydingsj at dicksteinshapiro.com.

 

 

OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
Election Observation Mission
Ukraine
Pre-term Parliamentary Elections 2007

INTERIM REPORT 2

4–16 September 2007

 

Executive Summary

 

• Campaign activities have increased but tended to be limited mainly to the parliamentary

parties. Most contestants have not complained about restrictions to their campaign activities.
The issue of campaigning by state authorities and civil servants who are not candidates has
come to the forefront. This has included criticism of the use of the President’s photo on
campaign posters, as well as ‘working visits’ by the President and the Prime Minister.

 

• The Central Election Commission (CEC) continues to manage electoral preparations in an

efficient manner. However, it did not provide sufficient guidance to District Election
Commissions (DECs) on the procedure for distributing managerial positions on Precinct
Election Commissions (PECs) proportionally among the parliamentary parties and blocs. As
a result, DECs did not take a uniform approach on this issue. In addition, during the reporting
period, the CEC had not adopted a clarification on the application for voting at home. DECs
have appointed PECs by the legal deadline.

 

• The 12 September deadline for Working Groups to deliver voter lists to DECs was generally

respected. Working Groups faced a number of technical problems such as wrong format of
addresses in the lists from the 2006 elections, which were used as a basis for compiling the
voter lists for the upcoming elections. Overall, some 11 million records had to be re-entered
due to incompatibilities with the current software.

 

• The issue of the constitutionality of the registration of citizens crossing the borders by the

State Border Guard Service, and their possible subsequent removal from voter lists, is still
pending with the Constitutional Court. Despite repeated requests, the OSCE/ODIHR EOM
has yet to be given an opportunity to obtain the relevant information from the Border Guards.

 

• Media coverage of the campaign has been active and fairly extensive, focusing primarily on

parliamentary parties and blocs. Among all contestants, the three biggest parliamentary
groups received the highest amount of coverage. The Government, and to a lesser extent the
President, also received substantial coverage. The overall tone of coverage of political actors
in the media was neutral or positive. The amount of paid advertisement increased during the
reporting period. State-owned media have provided free airtime and space, as foreseen by the
Parliamentary Election Law (PEL). Voter education in the media has been very limited thus
far.

 

• A number of complaints from contestants have brought the Courts to the forefront, including

one challenging restrictions put on campaign tents in Kiev, and one on citizens’ obligation to
fill in registration cards when crossing the borders. Courts have ruled in favour of these two
claims. The CEC has received ten complaints during the reporting period, six of which were
rejected.

 

• Women are well-represented in the election administration, especially at DEC level.

However, while five of the 20 registered candidate lists are headed by women, women are
overall underrepresented on candidate lists, especially in top slots.

 

For entire report, see:  http://www.osce.org/documents/html/pdftohtml/26371_en.pdf.html

 

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